Rookies and other Orioles Discussion

The Orioles season is falling further from relevance with their losing play after the All Star break. For hardcore fans of the team though it remains interesting to watch because of the large amount of young players that comprise the team. While the losing is the same, the level of young talent is far superior to what the Orioles have seen since they started losing over a decade ago. There was a little bit of this type of excitement back in 2006 when Nick Markakis was a rookie. At that time Chris Ray was starring in his second year, Adam Loewen made his debut, and Eric Bedard was finally pitching to his potential. However, the team was still dominated by over the hill players and guys who weren't top level talent. I don't feel that way in 2009.

Last night Chris Tillman took the mound for his second career start and tonight Brian Matusz will make his Major League debut. I'll exclude Koji Uehara because he is in his mid 30's, but that will make five rookie starters the O's have featured this year, each of whom is under 25. The bullpen isn't as reliant on rookies, although Kam Mickolio has been a guy to keep an eye on recently. While this isn't translating into wins in 2009, I think this is a great sign for the next few years.
In the field the Orioles have rookies as their primary starters in left field and catcher, and both are playing well despite Matt Wieters not living up to the god-like expectations that some people had for him.

So yes...the team sucks. But watching eight rookies developing at the Major League level at the same time is fun to watch for me. Of those eight guys playing as rookies this season, it is too soon to make a fair assessment of Mickolio, Matusz and Tillman. Briefly though Tillman has struggled through two starts and Mickolio looks good in just over 4 innings of relief. Jason Berken is the only one of the group I would label a failure, while Reimold, Wieters, Bergesen, and Hernandez have been very good if not great in their debuts.

If five of those guys are ready to be judged and four are so far successful, I like what the Orioles system is batting. 80% on rookie production is a great rate of success. Without a doubt it is better than what the Orioles have done in recent memory. The Orioles have been in rebuilding mode since the end of the 1998 season, and unfortunately there has been very little to show for it.

Take a look back at the Orioles first few years of rebuilding and what it provided for the team. In 2000 and 2001 Orioles management tried to seel Baltimore on guys like Chris Richard, Luis Matos, Larry Bigbie, Jay Gibbons, and Brian Roberts as the next generation of Orioles stars.

OUCH!

I'll give the Orioles credit that they made the right decision when they chose Brian Roberts as their franchise second baseman over Jerry Hairston, but those other names are pretty painful to remember. In terms of pitching the best the Orioles could do was probably BJ Ryan and Jorge Julio. Those guys have had successful careers(and I'm being generous with Julio), but it shouldn't be that hard to find a couple of one inning relievers. The Orioles minor league system gave us failures such as Josh Towers, John Stephens, Sean Douglass, Eric Dubose, Calvin Maduro, John Parrish, and Rick Bauer. Rodrigo Lopez was probably the only successful pitcher the Orioles brought along in the early part of this decade, and I don't think that can be attributed to their farm system.

So the idea of rebuilding this decade has been a complete failure for the Orioles aside from what Brian Roberts has become and what Erik Bedard provided from Seattle. Finally the Orioles have a big crop of rookies who are showing great potential. In addition to them the Orioles are looking younger at other key spots as well rather than collecting older vets. Markakis and Jones are already established as stars at just 23 and 25 years old, while the bullpen features some decent young arms with Meredith, Albers, and Johnson.
Its refreshing in some sense that the guys who seem to be struggling the most, Huff, Mora, Baez, and Hendrickson, probably won't be around this team much longer.

So here is to Brad Bergesen getting healthy, Jason Berken some day finding a new life in the bullpen, and a great debut from Brian Matusz tonight. Another losing season is in the works, but at least there is legitimate hope for 2010 and beyond making an impact on the field this season.

O's take Series from Chicago

So a young pitcher for the Orioles leaves the game with a lead on a Sunday afternoon. I've seen this before. Danys Baez and Chris Ray enter the game late in order to protect the lead, and the Orioles win!!! What? Baez and Ray came through to keep a win from slipping away from a deserving starter? Thats right...it happened.

While Jeremy Guthrie wasn't so lucky on Mother's Day, Garrett Olson got the help he deserved today to earn his first Major League win. Its great to see a 23 year-old pitcher come to the Majors and pitch well in his first 2 games. Olson hasn't been brilliant, but he has shown a lot of potential and pretty good composure on the mound. He improved in his 2nd start today by going longer in the game, giving up fewer walks, and striking guys out at key times. If not for Jermaine Dye tapping into his 2006 season, then Olson might not have given up any runs today.

Now Steve Trachsel is slated to retake his position the next time through the rotation, but I think the O's feel very confident now that Olson will be able to come up from Norfolk again and help them out. I like that he got 2 starts under his belt rather than just one emergency start and a quick trip back to AAA. Hopefully, Trachsel's bit of rest got him back on track, but if it hasn't I would like to see Olson back in B-more sooner than later.

As mentioned before...I was pleased that Chris Ray and Danys Baez didn't ruin this for Olson today. Baez looked much better than he was before hitting the DL. Of course that shouldn't be hard to do. Just one more good outing, and his ERA is likely to dip below 6.00! Chris Ray got things done, but he still looks shaky to me. However, I can't complain if these guys keep runs off of the board.

Chris Ray = Closer?

Chris Ray has had a stellar start to his career with the Baltimore Orioles. After doing brilliantly as BJ Ryan's set up guy for one year, he was given the closer's role last season and appeared to earn that spot with his performance. So far this season Ray has looked like anything but a closer.

The idea of a closer isn't just of a great reliever, but also of a guy who has some fire when he is on the mound. He is the type of guy who might only get one inning of work, but he will give you everything he has in that one inning and walk off knowing he helped win that game. Ray doesn't seem like that guy right now. Its obvious that he is trying, but his demeanor makes it appear that he isn't comfortable that he is that guy right now.

Ray's peripheral stats are fairly decent right now. His WHIP of 1.24 isn't bad. Not as nice as his 1.09 last season, but still respectable. His K/BB ratio is better this year than last, 2.33 to 1.88. He also hasn't give up a lot of homeruns, 3 in over 30 innings. Despite these decent stats, his ERA is almost 2 whole points higher than it was last year, and he already has 5 losses.
So if most of his stats reflect that he is pitching well, why has he struggled in critical games? What causes him to come up short when it seems the O's need him most.

Looking at the Nationals' closer Chad Cordero seems like a good impression to me. He and Ray are the same age, although Cordero has had a longer length of experience as a closer. They both play for teams that are near the bottom of the standings and don't give them as many save opportunities as other closers. Cordero's WHIP this season is 1.48, K/BB is 1.66, and he has given up 4 homeruns in the same amount of innings as Ray. By those stats Ray is having the better season. However, Cordero has just one loss and an ERA of 2.90.

Cordero obviously is being more productive this season than Ray. However, his numbers don't reflect that he is necessarily superior to Ray. What separates the two players is the mindset. Cordero has the confidence of a closer, while I am not seeing that confidence from Ray this season. At this point Chris Ray is the closer by default. The O's don't have anybody in their pen to come in and take his spot away. Maybe thats a problem. If Danys Baez was pitching well, maybe it would push Chris Ray a bit. Hopefully Ray is able to turn things around this season and prove he is the O's guy at the end of games, but his confidence, and my confidence in him, certainly isn't there right now.

Guthrie Let Down Again

Does Chris Ray have a problem with Jeremy Guthrie? It seems like Ray just doesn't want to do Guthrie right. Yesterday's homerun offered up by Chris Ray meant another blown save after Guthrie has gone 8 innings versus a division leading team. That type of game makes it hurt to be an O's fan.

The good news for the O's is that Jeremy Guthrie is showing no signs of slowing down. Against the West leading Angels, Guthrie went 8 innings with no walks, 3 hits, and just 1 earned run. Now unlike the game against the Red Sox, Guthrie looked shaky in the 8th inning before coming out. I understand why you might go to the closer in that situation after 2 hits and a run in the previous inning. However, shouldn't a starting pitcher have the right to close out his own game when he has the lead after 8 innings? Especially after the Boston debacle on Mother's Day, I would have given Guthrie control over this game.

Guthrie now has a WHIP under 1.00, and an ERA of 2.76. Hands down...right now he is your best pitcher. If you need to get 3 outs against a division leader with their best 3 hitters coming up...wouldn't you want your best pitcher on the mound?

Chris Ray has had a great young career for the Orioles. He has stepped in nicely for BJ Ryan, and I'm proud to have him as an Oriole. However, his failure in clutch situations against tough teams has me a bit worried. His 4 losses this year were against the Angels, Yankees, and twice to Boston. Those are games that the O's can't afford to be losing when they have a lead. Blowing a game to potential playoff teams is what is keeping the O's out of playoff contention.

If you take the 4 blown saves by Ray that ended in losses for the O's, and flipped them into wins. The O's would be at 31-26 right now. Thats just 1.5 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card. I'm a bit suprised by this, but the O's aren't that far away from being Wild Card contenders. They just completed a 6 game winning streak before the Angels took 3 of 4 from them. However, another prolonged winning streak, and the O's can put themselves right in the mix for the 4th playoff spot.
I know other O's teams over the last decade have had great starts to their seasons, only to return to 4th place by September. I truly hope this O's team has the right mix of guys and a little bit better luck, so they can show themselves and their fans that they can be a better team.

O's Blow it to Sox

Chris Ray is usually a good closer. However, when he does blow saves, he really blows it. Ray has 3 blown saves this year, and each won has been tragic for O's fans. First it was the 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth grand slam to Alex Rodriguez. The second blown opportunity was another grand slam to Willy Mo Pena. Finally yesterday he manages to blow things with the bases loaded by allowing 3 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks. I read that this was the first 5 run lead blown in the 9th inning since 1978!!! Congratulations Chris Ray. You and Danys Baez are the first guys to blow a 5 run lead in the final inning of a game in 29 years...and you only had 2 outs to get!

The Orioles' Mother Day game was as frustrating as it gets for an O's fan. The O's have been preaching about how they need to save their bullpen, and they are anxious about a young starter like Guthrie coming in to pitch after Trachsel and Burres didn't allow enough rest for the pen the last 2 days. I was shocked to see Guthrie pitch so well. I know he has great potential, but to take a shutout against Boston at Fenway into the 9th is ridiculous. Thats an amazing start. So why would he be pulled with 2 outs left in the game after pitching just 91 pitches? How great would it be for the O's to see their young pitcher solidify his role with a shutout of the first place team in your division? That truly would have fired the whole team up. Instead you deny a young pitcher his opportunity for his first career shutout, and somehow blew the game. Seems like Karma was involved to me.

I'm usually not one to get down on Sam Perlozzo. I've heard some people get enraged with how he manages a game, but I give him the benefit of the doubt. However, I completely disagree with what he did in the 9th yesterday. After one baserunner reached base on an error by the catcher, Guthrie gets yanked. Your pitcher has given up no runs and only 5 baserunners up until that point, and is your best option to get through that inning. He was in the "ZONE," on fire, whatever you want to call it. There is no doubt in my mind that Guthrie would get through the next 2 outs. Even if he loses the shutout, atleast he is the one responsible for it, and not some reliever who inherited the runner. Old school players and fans have to be shaking their head that a pitcher was taken out of a game with a shutout and just 2 outs left in the game. I agree with them. Part of the problem with the O's overusing their bullpen has been babying the starters. Let these guys pitch longer. Give them an opportunity to win games themselves instead of turning things over to relievers who 9 times out of 10 are guys who are in the bullpen because they wouldn't be able to cut it as a starter.

Time to erase this memory from my brain. I don't want to remember such an awful loss. Hopefully a sweep of the struggling Blue Jays will help ease my mind about the O's. And hopefully Sam Perlozzo will trust his starter to get the last two outs of the game next time one of them finds himself in that situation.