Rookies and other Orioles Discussion

The Orioles season is falling further from relevance with their losing play after the All Star break. For hardcore fans of the team though it remains interesting to watch because of the large amount of young players that comprise the team. While the losing is the same, the level of young talent is far superior to what the Orioles have seen since they started losing over a decade ago. There was a little bit of this type of excitement back in 2006 when Nick Markakis was a rookie. At that time Chris Ray was starring in his second year, Adam Loewen made his debut, and Eric Bedard was finally pitching to his potential. However, the team was still dominated by over the hill players and guys who weren't top level talent. I don't feel that way in 2009.

Last night Chris Tillman took the mound for his second career start and tonight Brian Matusz will make his Major League debut. I'll exclude Koji Uehara because he is in his mid 30's, but that will make five rookie starters the O's have featured this year, each of whom is under 25. The bullpen isn't as reliant on rookies, although Kam Mickolio has been a guy to keep an eye on recently. While this isn't translating into wins in 2009, I think this is a great sign for the next few years.
In the field the Orioles have rookies as their primary starters in left field and catcher, and both are playing well despite Matt Wieters not living up to the god-like expectations that some people had for him.

So yes...the team sucks. But watching eight rookies developing at the Major League level at the same time is fun to watch for me. Of those eight guys playing as rookies this season, it is too soon to make a fair assessment of Mickolio, Matusz and Tillman. Briefly though Tillman has struggled through two starts and Mickolio looks good in just over 4 innings of relief. Jason Berken is the only one of the group I would label a failure, while Reimold, Wieters, Bergesen, and Hernandez have been very good if not great in their debuts.

If five of those guys are ready to be judged and four are so far successful, I like what the Orioles system is batting. 80% on rookie production is a great rate of success. Without a doubt it is better than what the Orioles have done in recent memory. The Orioles have been in rebuilding mode since the end of the 1998 season, and unfortunately there has been very little to show for it.

Take a look back at the Orioles first few years of rebuilding and what it provided for the team. In 2000 and 2001 Orioles management tried to seel Baltimore on guys like Chris Richard, Luis Matos, Larry Bigbie, Jay Gibbons, and Brian Roberts as the next generation of Orioles stars.

OUCH!

I'll give the Orioles credit that they made the right decision when they chose Brian Roberts as their franchise second baseman over Jerry Hairston, but those other names are pretty painful to remember. In terms of pitching the best the Orioles could do was probably BJ Ryan and Jorge Julio. Those guys have had successful careers(and I'm being generous with Julio), but it shouldn't be that hard to find a couple of one inning relievers. The Orioles minor league system gave us failures such as Josh Towers, John Stephens, Sean Douglass, Eric Dubose, Calvin Maduro, John Parrish, and Rick Bauer. Rodrigo Lopez was probably the only successful pitcher the Orioles brought along in the early part of this decade, and I don't think that can be attributed to their farm system.

So the idea of rebuilding this decade has been a complete failure for the Orioles aside from what Brian Roberts has become and what Erik Bedard provided from Seattle. Finally the Orioles have a big crop of rookies who are showing great potential. In addition to them the Orioles are looking younger at other key spots as well rather than collecting older vets. Markakis and Jones are already established as stars at just 23 and 25 years old, while the bullpen features some decent young arms with Meredith, Albers, and Johnson.
Its refreshing in some sense that the guys who seem to be struggling the most, Huff, Mora, Baez, and Hendrickson, probably won't be around this team much longer.

So here is to Brad Bergesen getting healthy, Jason Berken some day finding a new life in the bullpen, and a great debut from Brian Matusz tonight. Another losing season is in the works, but at least there is legitimate hope for 2010 and beyond making an impact on the field this season.

Sherrill Trade

The Orioles traded their closer Georrge Sherill to the Dodgers today and received back two decent looking AA prospects just by the stats alone. Losing your best reliever is never fun for a fan, but I still like the trade. For guys like me who watch a lot of Orioles games and follow what goes on with the team, seeing who steps in and snatches the closer's role now that it is vacant should be an interesting story to follow in another losing season. Jim Johnson seems the most likely candidate, but he has struggled at times lately in close situations. I have confidence he will be able to secure that role, but who knows who else might throw their hat into the ring.

The trade made sense for the Orioles to make. Sherrill has a 2.40 ERA and 1.137 WHIP for the O's this season, which puts his stock about as high as it could be. His salary was reasonably under three million dollars this season, which made him a great value for his production. However, the closer is the final piece of the puzzle in my opinion. Bragging about a closer on a last place team just doesn't make sense. Trading a reliever for a legit third base prospect and a potential starting pitching prospect is a no brainer.

In regards to the prospects...
Trading for the son of a former Orioles pitcher and current MASN broadcaster seems like a homer move, but Steve Johnson's numbers look good to me. I'll throw out his numbers as a teenager and take a look at how the soon to be twenty-two year old has done over the last two seasons in A ball and AA.

In 2008 he was 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts at Low A. He moved up to advanced A and struggled with a 3-6 record, 7.10 ERA, and 1.71 WHIP in 11 starts. So he struggled with the jump to a more competitive level. However, this year in advanced A he put up a 8-4 record with a 3.82 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Thats some solid progression in my mind.
He has just recently completed two starts in AA and has a 1-1 record with a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Thats an extremely small sample size, but certainly isn't discouraging.
Overall since turning 20 he has a 20-12 record with a 3.98 ERA at A and AA. Current Orioles rookies David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen were still in Aberdeen and Delmarva respectively when they were 21, and their numbers weren't blowing people away, and look at how well they are pitching for the Orioles this year. Johnson is no lock to be a part of Baltimore's rotation one day, but he looks like a worthwhile guy for the O's to have traded for.

Josh Bell will probably get more attention from O's fans because of the obvious need to find a replacement for Melvin Mora at 3rd base. This is the spot the Orioles have been trying to find a guy for all along, but Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff''s struggles have made them undesirable trade options for other clubs. It would have been hard for the Orioles to acquire an everyday Major League player for a reliever, so a high level third base prospect seems like a good get to me.

Bell is a twenty-two year old prospect who has played all year at AA. That seems like a good developmental pace for a guy drafted out of high school. Looking at his minor league numbers, he has only really struggled during a twenty game stretch at high A ball as a 20 year old. His average at AA this season is .296, and even more impressive than that is his .386 OBP. Its great to see a guy who can swing but isn't afraid to take pitches either. He has also shown good power at that level with 30 doubles and 11 homeruns in 94 games. He immediately becomes the Orioles best minor league option at third base. Sorry Mike Costanzo...you didn't get it done.

The downside with Bell is his defense. His size, 6-3 and 235 pounds, makes him sound a bit more like a 1st baseman than a 3rd baseman. At AA this season he has a .929 fielding percentage with his 17 errors. That certainly isn't Gold Glove caliber, but with his offensive potential, he is worth a shot.

With the way the Orioles have handled prospects lately, it seems that 2010 would probably be too soon to expect Bell to contribute in Baltimore. However, I think he'll be a spring training invite and a long shot to play 3rd next season. Most likely he will find his way to Norfolk next year and have a chance to earn the job at third after Wigginton's contract expires next year.

So the Orioles were able to add two more prospects who appear on the Major League track for George Sherrill. Sherrill had a nice year and a half for the O's, but I'm happy with what he has brought back to the organization. The Erik Bedard trade looks like it will continue to reap benefits for Baltimore.

To get an idea of how the Bedard trade looks so far, here is a quick comparison of what the Orioles have gained from it.

Sherrill - 3 wins, 94 innings, 51 saves, and a 3.71 ERA
Mickolio - 0 wins, 11 innings, and a 3.97 ERA
Tillman - 0 wins, 4 innings, and a 5.79 ERA
Jones - 125 runs, 240 hits, and 116 RBI

Seattle has gotten this out of Bedard.
11 wins, 164 innings, and a 3.24 ERA

Bedard has been good in his limited time for Seattle, but the Orioles have already received Major League time from four players in that deal. Who on Earth knows how to compare this, but Jones' solid play and Sherrill's relief work are probably equal or greater to Bedard's production so far. When you consider that Bedard is already 30, and that the six players currently in the Orioles organization, including Bell and Johnson from today's trade, are 25, 23, 22, 21, 21, and 21, the potential for this to be one of the most mind-blowingly lopsided trades ever is huge. I loved watching Erik Bedard pitch for the Orioles, but I don't miss him one bit with what the Orioles have received in return. The last two years have been painful to watch at times, but I am definitely encouraged for the O's future by the talent they have acquired.

Slowest Sports Week of Summer

The slowest sports week of the summer has hit, and its time to move on towards more exciting times. However, football season is still some time away. Baseball is the only sport going on right now, unless you want to count international soccer or summer league basketball. The Orioles have gone past the halfway point of the season and find themselves 15 games out of 1st in the AL East and 14 in the Wild Card. Erik Bedard has had two exciting performances in a row after last night's outing. He truly is a stud, and the O's need to make sure he stays with this team for a while. However, there really isn't too much to get excited for right now with the O's. They really aren't scoring runs consistently lately. Miguel Tejada's absence seems to really be felt.

They have yet to score 400 runs on the year, and only Chicago and Oakland have yet to do so as well in the AL. Chicago is a joke like the O's, but atleast the A's still have a positive run differential. Orioles pitching has been decent this year, but its wasted with an unproductive offense.

All Stars Announced

So the All Stars were announced yesterday evening, and the Nats and O's each got just one lone representative. This really isn't a surprise for two teams who are way below even through the 1st half of the season. Dmitri Young is a decent choice for the Nats. Obviously there won't be any pitching representatives from this team with its awful staff. So an everyday player makes the most sense. Ryan Zimmerman is a player I would argue could have made it over Dmitri Young. He has more RBI and runs, which I feel are the most important stats for an offensive player, but he is only batting .245. Young's .340 batting average is a lot more impressive, and he is slugging over .500 as well.

Brian Roberts definitely earned his place for the Orioles. He is one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, plays good 2nd base, and leads the league in SB. Miguel Tejada was another possibility before his injury, but it would be odd to see him rewarded in somewhat of an off year. There is also a lot more competition for the All Star spot at SS then there is at 2B. Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie are having good years pitching, but neither has too much of a track record, especially Guthrie. Bedard's strikeout totals are impressive, but there are too many players with a better win-loss record and superior ERA this year in the AL for Bedard to get a spot.

5 in a Row

Nothing like a series against the Royals to give a team a boost. The Orioles followed up taking the final two from the A's over Memorial Day weekend to sweep the Royals in KC. The best thing about this win streak is that each starter has gotten a win over the last five days. Erik Bedard was great last night. The great thing about yesterday's win was that he outlasted Gil Meche, who was just as good as Bedard until the Orioles produced a run with some small ball in the 8th. For those who criticize Sam Perlozzo, I think you have to agree with his decisions late in the game last night. Having Bynum pinch run and the bunts by Patterson and Roberts were the difference in the game. As Perlozzo has said before...his decisions come down to the players getting it done, and that is certainly what they did last night.

With the possibility of getting back over .500 this weekend, I saw some good news for the Orioles on the bottom line of ESPN last night. Apparently Bartolo Colon will not be pitching Saturday because of an injury to his triceps. Right now it looks like Joe Saunders(2-0, 1.96 era) is scheduled to go in Colon's place. Saunders initial stats look good, but he does have a WHIP over 1.5, and a mediocre BB/K ratio.

Playing the Angels certainly won't be easy, because they have been hot lately, and are currently the 3rd best team in the AL. Their pitching staff is very solid. John Lackey is having an extremely good year, and their rotation is one of the tops in the AL. Their bullpen is also tough with guys like Rodriguez and Shields to close out games. Hopefully Brian Burres can be tough against the Angels tonight, and get this series off to a great start.

Baez hurting the O's

I thought Danys Baez's signing was a good one by the O's this offseason. While he isn't a great pitcher, he is very capable of helping a bullpen out. However, he is severely struggling right now, and its really hurt the Orioles lately.

Since last Sunday when he gave up 2 runs without getting an out against the Red Sox, Baez has only had one solid outing. He has pitched 4 more times, and given up 2 runs in 3 of those 4 outings. Baez has two losses over the last week, and all 3 of his losses have come in May. When this month started he had a 2.92 ERA, but now he is sporting one of 6.10. He isn't just blowing things in meaningless situations though. His pitching has directly led to 3 losses in the last week. That is way too much damage for a setup man to cause a team. The O's have deserved better lately, and its a shame their bullpen has let them down.

The good news for the O's is that the rotation has remained solid despite several injuries. Erik Bedard has lowered his ERA over his last 5 starts, and his team has won his games 3 times, despite Erik now getting the W's. Jeremy Guthrie backed up his Red Sox gem with a great game this weekend. 7 innings and 10 k's was surely impressive, and it looks like Wright's spot has been adequately filled.
Hopefully the team uses their day off tommorow to get things on track before the Jays come to town. It would be great to see the O's redeem themselves after getting swept by Toronto last week.