Sherrill Trade

The Orioles traded their closer Georrge Sherill to the Dodgers today and received back two decent looking AA prospects just by the stats alone. Losing your best reliever is never fun for a fan, but I still like the trade. For guys like me who watch a lot of Orioles games and follow what goes on with the team, seeing who steps in and snatches the closer's role now that it is vacant should be an interesting story to follow in another losing season. Jim Johnson seems the most likely candidate, but he has struggled at times lately in close situations. I have confidence he will be able to secure that role, but who knows who else might throw their hat into the ring.

The trade made sense for the Orioles to make. Sherrill has a 2.40 ERA and 1.137 WHIP for the O's this season, which puts his stock about as high as it could be. His salary was reasonably under three million dollars this season, which made him a great value for his production. However, the closer is the final piece of the puzzle in my opinion. Bragging about a closer on a last place team just doesn't make sense. Trading a reliever for a legit third base prospect and a potential starting pitching prospect is a no brainer.

In regards to the prospects...
Trading for the son of a former Orioles pitcher and current MASN broadcaster seems like a homer move, but Steve Johnson's numbers look good to me. I'll throw out his numbers as a teenager and take a look at how the soon to be twenty-two year old has done over the last two seasons in A ball and AA.

In 2008 he was 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts at Low A. He moved up to advanced A and struggled with a 3-6 record, 7.10 ERA, and 1.71 WHIP in 11 starts. So he struggled with the jump to a more competitive level. However, this year in advanced A he put up a 8-4 record with a 3.82 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Thats some solid progression in my mind.
He has just recently completed two starts in AA and has a 1-1 record with a 1.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Thats an extremely small sample size, but certainly isn't discouraging.
Overall since turning 20 he has a 20-12 record with a 3.98 ERA at A and AA. Current Orioles rookies David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen were still in Aberdeen and Delmarva respectively when they were 21, and their numbers weren't blowing people away, and look at how well they are pitching for the Orioles this year. Johnson is no lock to be a part of Baltimore's rotation one day, but he looks like a worthwhile guy for the O's to have traded for.

Josh Bell will probably get more attention from O's fans because of the obvious need to find a replacement for Melvin Mora at 3rd base. This is the spot the Orioles have been trying to find a guy for all along, but Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff''s struggles have made them undesirable trade options for other clubs. It would have been hard for the Orioles to acquire an everyday Major League player for a reliever, so a high level third base prospect seems like a good get to me.

Bell is a twenty-two year old prospect who has played all year at AA. That seems like a good developmental pace for a guy drafted out of high school. Looking at his minor league numbers, he has only really struggled during a twenty game stretch at high A ball as a 20 year old. His average at AA this season is .296, and even more impressive than that is his .386 OBP. Its great to see a guy who can swing but isn't afraid to take pitches either. He has also shown good power at that level with 30 doubles and 11 homeruns in 94 games. He immediately becomes the Orioles best minor league option at third base. Sorry Mike Costanzo...you didn't get it done.

The downside with Bell is his defense. His size, 6-3 and 235 pounds, makes him sound a bit more like a 1st baseman than a 3rd baseman. At AA this season he has a .929 fielding percentage with his 17 errors. That certainly isn't Gold Glove caliber, but with his offensive potential, he is worth a shot.

With the way the Orioles have handled prospects lately, it seems that 2010 would probably be too soon to expect Bell to contribute in Baltimore. However, I think he'll be a spring training invite and a long shot to play 3rd next season. Most likely he will find his way to Norfolk next year and have a chance to earn the job at third after Wigginton's contract expires next year.

So the Orioles were able to add two more prospects who appear on the Major League track for George Sherrill. Sherrill had a nice year and a half for the O's, but I'm happy with what he has brought back to the organization. The Erik Bedard trade looks like it will continue to reap benefits for Baltimore.

To get an idea of how the Bedard trade looks so far, here is a quick comparison of what the Orioles have gained from it.

Sherrill - 3 wins, 94 innings, 51 saves, and a 3.71 ERA
Mickolio - 0 wins, 11 innings, and a 3.97 ERA
Tillman - 0 wins, 4 innings, and a 5.79 ERA
Jones - 125 runs, 240 hits, and 116 RBI

Seattle has gotten this out of Bedard.
11 wins, 164 innings, and a 3.24 ERA

Bedard has been good in his limited time for Seattle, but the Orioles have already received Major League time from four players in that deal. Who on Earth knows how to compare this, but Jones' solid play and Sherrill's relief work are probably equal or greater to Bedard's production so far. When you consider that Bedard is already 30, and that the six players currently in the Orioles organization, including Bell and Johnson from today's trade, are 25, 23, 22, 21, 21, and 21, the potential for this to be one of the most mind-blowingly lopsided trades ever is huge. I loved watching Erik Bedard pitch for the Orioles, but I don't miss him one bit with what the Orioles have received in return. The last two years have been painful to watch at times, but I am definitely encouraged for the O's future by the talent they have acquired.

The future of the O's

Haven't written on this blog for a while, but since nobody really reads it...I don't think anybody has missed it.
Memorial Day means summer time, which of course means baseball. I've made it out to two O's games this season, a Mother's Day loss to the Yanks and a win over the lowly Nats down in DC. I can live with a 1-1 record so far this year, now only is the O's were playing .500 ball.
The record is crap as ususal, but the Orioles have a lot of positives mixed in with some big negatives. However, the Orioles' management has been saying since Andy McPhail arrived as General Manager that they were aiming to compete in 2010 or 2011, so this year is part of the current rebuilding plan. Damn...how many rebuilding plans has Baltimore seen since 1998? So here is what I like from the O's so far.

The O's have made it a priority to acquire more depth in the minor leagues, and I think they have been very successful in doing so. One piece of evidence is that the minor league teams are playing well and winning across the board.
Norfolk is 28-14
Bowie is 21-20
Frederick is 22-20
Delmarva is 22-18
And for those that really follow the organization at more than just the Major League level, there are prospects at all of these levels, rather than over the hill prospects and guys who failed at the Major League level. From different message boards and blogs I've read, some fans are agitated that the Orioles aren't calling up these potential "stars" from the minors. I'm sure some of the guys in the Orioles' minor league system could do well in Baltimore already, but I like the idea of creating a winning environment in the minors first. Young players shouldn't be given a spot, and should have to earn it first.

Nolan Reimold has been playing well in left field since he has been called up this month, and I feel he is a good example of a player that has proven he belongs in the Majors. Reimold has been a big name prospect for some time now, and I can remember reading fans calling for him to be in the Majors for most of the last year and a half. He wasn't rushed to spring training in 2008 or when rosters expanded last September. He played well this year in the Spring, but was sent to AAA and forced to perform well there before getting the recent promotion. The way he has been handled has apparently shown him that he will need to compete to get where he belongs, and that appears to be working well for him so far.

Hopefully that mindset is also being instilled in the minor league pitchers, because that is this team's greatest need right now. I think this philosophy was shown with Brad Bergesen this spring. He pitched extremely well in spring training, but was sent to Norfolk to start the year despite the wishes of many fans. I'm sure that nobody in the Orioles front office thought Adam Eaton, Mark Hendrickson, and Alfredo Simon were the answers to the Orioles pitching problems. However, those guys were used to start the season in the rotation so that Bergesen and other pitchers weren't just given spots, but had to prove that they belonged. Bergesen was giving the opportunity first to prove he belongs, and it looks like Jason Berken will be given that chance tommorow. I'm excited for all of the Orioles' pitching prospects, but I think its a smart idea to not rush them all at one time, and allow them time to learn success in the minors.

While its exciting to see some guys like Bergesen and Reimold come up and hold their own with the Orioles, its great to realize that these aren't even the biggest names in the farm system. The most anticipated player is obviously Matt Wieters, who was tabbed as the #1 prospect in all of baseball before this season. He is being compared to Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira, and any O's fan has to be excited to hear that. Like the other guys I brought up, fans thought he should have been on the O's roster to start the season, or maybe last season. However, he is being brought along slowly and the debut is getting closer, although it hasn't been announced yet. Everybody who pays attention knows that he was being held back about a month because of future contract issues. I don't know when he will be up, but I'll guess that June 9th against the Mariners is a good bet. That will be the first game of a nine game home stand, and it falls on a Tuesday after a day off Monday. I'm sure that announcing Wieters' call up Sunday afternoon will create enough build-up for the O's to sell a lot more tickets on a Tuesday evening than they normally would. With nine games in a row at home, including two series that won't likely draw a lot of interest from opposing fans, the Orioles management would assure themselves a lot of interest from Orioles fans, even if the team isn't winning.

The top pitchers are further away, but Chris Tilman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Brandon Erbe are all 4 and 5 star prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. All of these guys are young and have performed well so far this season. Matusz was a first round pick last year, but was placed in just A ball at Frederick. Again, this speaks to the philosophy of forcing a player to earn a promotion to the next level. Each of these guys is expected to be better than Bergesen and Berken, but they are being forced to earn their promotions over an extended period of time, rather than gifted their opportunities. Nobody knows how many of these guys will wear an Orioles uniform this season, but its exciting to know they are on their way.

The other positives are easier to see. Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff still have it, and the Orioles have a 23 and a 25 year old outfielder who should both be playing in the All Star game. It will be tough for the last place O's to squeeze two guys into the game, but these guys are two of the best hitters in the AL. Losing for over a decade is incredibly frustrating, and playing in the AL East won't make it easy to turn that around. However, the future is looking brighter than I can remember in a long time. At least that is one reason to be excited for the Orioles.