Thursday, June 14, 2007

Chris Ray = Closer?

Chris Ray has had a stellar start to his career with the Baltimore Orioles. After doing brilliantly as BJ Ryan's set up guy for one year, he was given the closer's role last season and appeared to earn that spot with his performance. So far this season Ray has looked like anything but a closer.

The idea of a closer isn't just of a great reliever, but also of a guy who has some fire when he is on the mound. He is the type of guy who might only get one inning of work, but he will give you everything he has in that one inning and walk off knowing he helped win that game. Ray doesn't seem like that guy right now. Its obvious that he is trying, but his demeanor makes it appear that he isn't comfortable that he is that guy right now.

Ray's peripheral stats are fairly decent right now. His WHIP of 1.24 isn't bad. Not as nice as his 1.09 last season, but still respectable. His K/BB ratio is better this year than last, 2.33 to 1.88. He also hasn't give up a lot of homeruns, 3 in over 30 innings. Despite these decent stats, his ERA is almost 2 whole points higher than it was last year, and he already has 5 losses.
So if most of his stats reflect that he is pitching well, why has he struggled in critical games? What causes him to come up short when it seems the O's need him most.

Looking at the Nationals' closer Chad Cordero seems like a good impression to me. He and Ray are the same age, although Cordero has had a longer length of experience as a closer. They both play for teams that are near the bottom of the standings and don't give them as many save opportunities as other closers. Cordero's WHIP this season is 1.48, K/BB is 1.66, and he has given up 4 homeruns in the same amount of innings as Ray. By those stats Ray is having the better season. However, Cordero has just one loss and an ERA of 2.90.

Cordero obviously is being more productive this season than Ray. However, his numbers don't reflect that he is necessarily superior to Ray. What separates the two players is the mindset. Cordero has the confidence of a closer, while I am not seeing that confidence from Ray this season. At this point Chris Ray is the closer by default. The O's don't have anybody in their pen to come in and take his spot away. Maybe thats a problem. If Danys Baez was pitching well, maybe it would push Chris Ray a bit. Hopefully Ray is able to turn things around this season and prove he is the O's guy at the end of games, but his confidence, and my confidence in him, certainly isn't there right now.

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