4th in the East is where the O's currently stand right now. The O's did not take care of business in a very winnable series against the Rockies, and now find themselves just .001 percentage points ahead of the D-Rays for last in the East. Just looking at the loss column, only the Rangers and Royals have more losses than the O's do right now.
What is truly frustrating about the O's record, is that they aren't as bad of a team as their record shows. The number of 1 run games that the O's have lost is a sign of this. This team might not be clutch or whatever you want to call it, but they are playing a huge amount of close games, and have come up short more than their share of times. On the year the O's have scored 5 more runs than they have allowed. That should translate to a record somewhere around .500.
The teams lower than the O's in the standings are -60(Rangers), -71(Royals), -51(White Sox), and -67(Tampa Bay). Looking at those numbers, those teams should definitely be near the bottom of the AL.
On the opposite end there are teams whose run differential clearly shows that they are the better teams in the league...+80(Rex Sox), +56(Angels), +47(Indians), +67(Detroit), +51(Yankees), and +45(A's). Those 6 teams should be the one's competing for the 4 AL playoff spots with winning records. The Yankees are the only team in that bunch without a current winning record, but I don't see that staying that way for much longer. They have underachieved all year, and are likely to make their way back into the Wild Card spot.
That leaves several other teams whose run differential is somewhere near even. In addition to the O's at +5, there are +2(Twins), -1(Blue Jays), and +13(Seattle).
Minnesota and the Blue Jays are a game and 2 games below .500 respectively. That is right where they should be. The Mariners have been the opposite of the O's, in that they have won a lot of close games. Their 33-26 record has them in the Wild Card hunt early in the summer while their run differential is nowhere near as good as the other teams near the top of the standings.
Whats my point in all of this. The run differential so far this year is impressive to me for an O's team. Since 2000 the Orioles have only had one year, 2004 (+12), where they have finished the season with a positive run differential. Most of those years the O's have finished with a run differential greater than -100. It shows me that during the O's stretch of losing seasons, they truly have not deserved to be winners. That +12 differential under Lee Mazzili in 2004 is miniscule over the course of 162 games. After a run differential of -131 last season, it is a step in the right direction for the O's to turn that number around to +5 in June. However, the wins still aren't coming for the Orioles. Its as if the team has improved, but they still haven't learned how to win.
Monday, June 11, 2007
Friday, June 8, 2007
Big News on Off Day
The Orioles had a day off yesterday after making their way back to Baltimore from the west coast. Hopefully that bit of rest will have them refreshed this weekend to take out the Rockies. However, there was still big news for the Orioles on Thursday. They used the 5th pick in the draft to select Matt Wieters from Georgia Tech. Wieters is a switch hitting catcher, who appears to be arguably one of the best players in the draft. Hearing him described as the 2nd best catching prospect ever drafted behind Joe Mauer is pretty impressive.
He has good power(.592 SLG), hits for a high average(.358), and is supposedly a great defensive catcher as well. Everything about this guy seems to hint that he will be a future star.
The one drawback that was mentioned about Wieters is that he is represented by Scott Boras. Ok...so the O's will have to spend big time money on this kid. But if Wieters is as good as advertised, I don't see a problem with that. He is 21, and has excelled at a good baseball school for 3 years. His time in the minors probably won't be very long. It would be a different issue if this were a Boras client who was 18 years old and may never reach the majors.
Its also a good sign that the Orioles management is willing to work with Boras. Remember that Boras is the agent for Maryland native Mark Teixeira, who isn't showing any sign of wanting to re-sign in Texas. Getting a deal done with Wieters can only make Boras' relationship with the O's better. This guy represents a lot of big name players in baseball, and its important for the O's to be on his list of teams he likes to work with.
He has good power(.592 SLG), hits for a high average(.358), and is supposedly a great defensive catcher as well. Everything about this guy seems to hint that he will be a future star.
The one drawback that was mentioned about Wieters is that he is represented by Scott Boras. Ok...so the O's will have to spend big time money on this kid. But if Wieters is as good as advertised, I don't see a problem with that. He is 21, and has excelled at a good baseball school for 3 years. His time in the minors probably won't be very long. It would be a different issue if this were a Boras client who was 18 years old and may never reach the majors.
Its also a good sign that the Orioles management is willing to work with Boras. Remember that Boras is the agent for Maryland native Mark Teixeira, who isn't showing any sign of wanting to re-sign in Texas. Getting a deal done with Wieters can only make Boras' relationship with the O's better. This guy represents a lot of big name players in baseball, and its important for the O's to be on his list of teams he likes to work with.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Streak Snapped
So the Orioles snapped another losing streak last night. I had pretty much given up on that game when the O's got down early, but the offense sparked and saved the day. It was good to see Daniel Cabrera tough it out when he got down early, and stay in until the 8th. Although he gave up 4 runs, he earned that win by overcoming adversity and pitching great down the stretch.
So if the O's trend of alternating winning and losing streaks continues, hopefully this win gets the O's started on a run of wins. With Colorado(28-31) and Washington(24-35) coming to town in the next week, this looks like a good time to get that done. It certainly will be easier than their next 3 series, which will be against the top 2 in the NL West...Arizona(36-24) and San Diego(35-23).
So if the O's trend of alternating winning and losing streaks continues, hopefully this win gets the O's started on a run of wins. With Colorado(28-31) and Washington(24-35) coming to town in the next week, this looks like a good time to get that done. It certainly will be easier than their next 3 series, which will be against the top 2 in the NL West...Arizona(36-24) and San Diego(35-23).
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Cold Streak
I had a post earlier in the baseball season regarding how the O's appear to be a team of streaks. That trend is definitely keeping up. Win a bunch, lose a bunch...repeat the process. It doesn't seem to get them anywhere. However, there have been times when I love the team, and then times like right now, when watching them play just pisses me off. On the year the O's have winning streaks of 4,4,4, and 6, while losing 3,5,4,5, and 5. Each time the O's snap off a good winning streak, there has always been a equal losing streak to bring them back into the rear of the AL standings. Its a depressing way to follow a team.
Currently the O's have lost 5 straight...the last 3 of those losses earned by the bullpen. The supposed strength of the 2007 O's sure is disappointing.
How worthless is a Hold? Well...Danys Baez earned a hold last night(12th on the year) despite getting just 1 out and giving up 3 earned runs. That stat is meaningless...and Baez's era continues to rise...now at 6.84. Perlozzo just can't trust this guy in a game the O's have the lead any more.
Good news from last night is that Burres continues to do well. I wish he could pitch more efficiently and log some more innings, but its hard to complain with just 1 run given up.
10 hits is also a good sign, although Cory Patterson's .214 average is pretty trifling.
The O's really don't have somebody in the minors who can come up and hit better than Patterson or Gibbons right now? I'd love to atleast see somebody else given a chance in LF, with Payton moving over to CF. Maybe a little benching would inspire one of those guys to get out of their prolonged slumps.
Currently the O's have lost 5 straight...the last 3 of those losses earned by the bullpen. The supposed strength of the 2007 O's sure is disappointing.
How worthless is a Hold? Well...Danys Baez earned a hold last night(12th on the year) despite getting just 1 out and giving up 3 earned runs. That stat is meaningless...and Baez's era continues to rise...now at 6.84. Perlozzo just can't trust this guy in a game the O's have the lead any more.
Good news from last night is that Burres continues to do well. I wish he could pitch more efficiently and log some more innings, but its hard to complain with just 1 run given up.
10 hits is also a good sign, although Cory Patterson's .214 average is pretty trifling.
The O's really don't have somebody in the minors who can come up and hit better than Patterson or Gibbons right now? I'd love to atleast see somebody else given a chance in LF, with Payton moving over to CF. Maybe a little benching would inspire one of those guys to get out of their prolonged slumps.
Monday, June 4, 2007
Pick Up Basketball
I was looking through the Washington City Paper, a free "alternative" newspaper for DC. They always have a small sports column, that usually focuses on something besides the traditional sports stories covered by cable programs or the newspapers. I read the column by Dave McKenna about pick up basektball in DC. He wrote about seeing a game of "loser's out" at a playground in the city. He was appalled that loser's out was played in DC, where winner's out has always been the rule. Growing up in a suburb of DC, it was always winners ball. Loser's out was described as a white way to play the game, but in my majority white community we always played winners.
When we wouldn't have enough players for a true game, we would always play 21. The idea behind the game is every person for themself. 2 points for a field goal and 1 for a free throw. Free throws were earned by making a bucket, and after 3 made free throws, you had to check it up and play ball. Gettinn tapped meant you lost all of your points, and if you didn't hit 21 exactly, you dropped down to 13.
McKenna mentions in the article how 21 was the suburban(white) game, while 33 was the city(black) way of playing it. I remember playing 33 when I was a kid, but it was predominantly 21. I probably played 33 when I went to basketball camp, where kids from other neighborhoods all came together to play ball. When I was 13 my family moved from the DC area to the Baltimore area. In Baltimore they played 50(both black and white). 21 or 33 never came up.
This was an interesting article because it discussed some of the differences in pick up ball between different groups of people and areas. It would be interesting to me to hear from other people who might have other variances on pick up ball in different places they have played.
When we wouldn't have enough players for a true game, we would always play 21. The idea behind the game is every person for themself. 2 points for a field goal and 1 for a free throw. Free throws were earned by making a bucket, and after 3 made free throws, you had to check it up and play ball. Gettinn tapped meant you lost all of your points, and if you didn't hit 21 exactly, you dropped down to 13.
McKenna mentions in the article how 21 was the suburban(white) game, while 33 was the city(black) way of playing it. I remember playing 33 when I was a kid, but it was predominantly 21. I probably played 33 when I went to basketball camp, where kids from other neighborhoods all came together to play ball. When I was 13 my family moved from the DC area to the Baltimore area. In Baltimore they played 50(both black and white). 21 or 33 never came up.
This was an interesting article because it discussed some of the differences in pick up ball between different groups of people and areas. It would be interesting to me to hear from other people who might have other variances on pick up ball in different places they have played.
Guthrie Let Down Again
Does Chris Ray have a problem with Jeremy Guthrie? It seems like Ray just doesn't want to do Guthrie right. Yesterday's homerun offered up by Chris Ray meant another blown save after Guthrie has gone 8 innings versus a division leading team. That type of game makes it hurt to be an O's fan.
The good news for the O's is that Jeremy Guthrie is showing no signs of slowing down. Against the West leading Angels, Guthrie went 8 innings with no walks, 3 hits, and just 1 earned run. Now unlike the game against the Red Sox, Guthrie looked shaky in the 8th inning before coming out. I understand why you might go to the closer in that situation after 2 hits and a run in the previous inning. However, shouldn't a starting pitcher have the right to close out his own game when he has the lead after 8 innings? Especially after the Boston debacle on Mother's Day, I would have given Guthrie control over this game.
Guthrie now has a WHIP under 1.00, and an ERA of 2.76. Hands down...right now he is your best pitcher. If you need to get 3 outs against a division leader with their best 3 hitters coming up...wouldn't you want your best pitcher on the mound?
Chris Ray has had a great young career for the Orioles. He has stepped in nicely for BJ Ryan, and I'm proud to have him as an Oriole. However, his failure in clutch situations against tough teams has me a bit worried. His 4 losses this year were against the Angels, Yankees, and twice to Boston. Those are games that the O's can't afford to be losing when they have a lead. Blowing a game to potential playoff teams is what is keeping the O's out of playoff contention.
If you take the 4 blown saves by Ray that ended in losses for the O's, and flipped them into wins. The O's would be at 31-26 right now. Thats just 1.5 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card. I'm a bit suprised by this, but the O's aren't that far away from being Wild Card contenders. They just completed a 6 game winning streak before the Angels took 3 of 4 from them. However, another prolonged winning streak, and the O's can put themselves right in the mix for the 4th playoff spot.
I know other O's teams over the last decade have had great starts to their seasons, only to return to 4th place by September. I truly hope this O's team has the right mix of guys and a little bit better luck, so they can show themselves and their fans that they can be a better team.
The good news for the O's is that Jeremy Guthrie is showing no signs of slowing down. Against the West leading Angels, Guthrie went 8 innings with no walks, 3 hits, and just 1 earned run. Now unlike the game against the Red Sox, Guthrie looked shaky in the 8th inning before coming out. I understand why you might go to the closer in that situation after 2 hits and a run in the previous inning. However, shouldn't a starting pitcher have the right to close out his own game when he has the lead after 8 innings? Especially after the Boston debacle on Mother's Day, I would have given Guthrie control over this game.
Guthrie now has a WHIP under 1.00, and an ERA of 2.76. Hands down...right now he is your best pitcher. If you need to get 3 outs against a division leader with their best 3 hitters coming up...wouldn't you want your best pitcher on the mound?
Chris Ray has had a great young career for the Orioles. He has stepped in nicely for BJ Ryan, and I'm proud to have him as an Oriole. However, his failure in clutch situations against tough teams has me a bit worried. His 4 losses this year were against the Angels, Yankees, and twice to Boston. Those are games that the O's can't afford to be losing when they have a lead. Blowing a game to potential playoff teams is what is keeping the O's out of playoff contention.
If you take the 4 blown saves by Ray that ended in losses for the O's, and flipped them into wins. The O's would be at 31-26 right now. Thats just 1.5 games back of Detroit for the Wild Card. I'm a bit suprised by this, but the O's aren't that far away from being Wild Card contenders. They just completed a 6 game winning streak before the Angels took 3 of 4 from them. However, another prolonged winning streak, and the O's can put themselves right in the mix for the 4th playoff spot.
I know other O's teams over the last decade have had great starts to their seasons, only to return to 4th place by September. I truly hope this O's team has the right mix of guys and a little bit better luck, so they can show themselves and their fans that they can be a better team.
Friday, June 1, 2007
Nick Markakis
Nick Markakis' rookie year was a big deal for O's fans. Its been a while(try Cal Ripken) since the O's have seen such a young, everyday prospect come up and perform so well at the Major League level. The only organizational position players to truly have more than brief stay in Baltimore in recent history have been Roberts, Hairston, Bigbie, and Matos. Only Roberts has had true success with Baltimore. The Marlins had more talent come up through their system last year than the Orioles have had in the last decade. In Markakis, it seems like the O's had finally drafted and developed a player who would not be merely good, but one of the best players in the league at some point.
I've been somewhat disappointed in Nick Markakis this season, but truly pleased at the same time. The negatives are that he hasn't been able to hold down the 3rd spot in the batting order. I think that he is a true #3 hitter, and I would like to see him earn the right to keep that spot in the Orioles lineup. The issue has been his consistency in my opinion. His average isn't where I expected it to be, and he seems to be hitting into more than his fair share of double plays(currently 3rd in the AL with 11).
However, while his average is currently 26 points below where he ended up last year, I remember that he struggled a lot early in 2006. Markakis had one of the top averages in the AL following the All Star break last season, after struggling early on as a rookie. I definitely feel that he won't be batting .265 at the end of the season, and that his average and OBP will come up. Nick Markakis' potential is huge when you consider he is leading the team in RBI with 33, and that he is currently 8th in the AL in both doubles and extra base hits. He is doing that without hitting for the average that is expected of him. If Markakis gets on a tear during the summer months like he did last season, this surely will be a season to remember for O's fans.
I've been somewhat disappointed in Nick Markakis this season, but truly pleased at the same time. The negatives are that he hasn't been able to hold down the 3rd spot in the batting order. I think that he is a true #3 hitter, and I would like to see him earn the right to keep that spot in the Orioles lineup. The issue has been his consistency in my opinion. His average isn't where I expected it to be, and he seems to be hitting into more than his fair share of double plays(currently 3rd in the AL with 11).
However, while his average is currently 26 points below where he ended up last year, I remember that he struggled a lot early in 2006. Markakis had one of the top averages in the AL following the All Star break last season, after struggling early on as a rookie. I definitely feel that he won't be batting .265 at the end of the season, and that his average and OBP will come up. Nick Markakis' potential is huge when you consider he is leading the team in RBI with 33, and that he is currently 8th in the AL in both doubles and extra base hits. He is doing that without hitting for the average that is expected of him. If Markakis gets on a tear during the summer months like he did last season, this surely will be a season to remember for O's fans.
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