The NBA draft has come and once again I am not impressed with what the Wizards have done. With the 16th pick in the draft they selected Nick Young. He is a SG from USC, who I admit I don't know a lot about. Atleast he has put up good numbers throughout his college career and appears to have been highly rated. He is described as having the classic basketball body, tall and lean with long arms. However, from what I've read his motivation in college has been questioned. Cons about his game have dealt with his effort on defense and when he doesn't have the ball. That doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement. This seems like the Wizards still feel that scoring 105 every night is the best way to make a winning team, even if they can't stop anybody on defense.
I also don't know much about Dominic McGuire. While his stats in college have improved as he went through school, they aren't that impressive. He had 3.7 TOs per game last season at Fresno State. He appears to rebound well and block shots, but his offensive game is described as underdeveloped. He is another guy who seems to be well rated because of his athleticism, but doesn't have the skills to match. He is also listed around 6-8 or 6-9, with a weight of 210-220. That doesn't sound like a bruiser to me. With the uninspiring play of the Haywood/Thomas tandem at center in 2006-2007, I would have thought the Wizards would have addressed that need better.
In addition to the flaws in each of these players games that I read about, I also just don't trust the Wizards because of their draft history. The last great draft pick they had was Rip Hamilton in 1999, and he was only given 3 years to play in DC.
Recently the Wiz have chosen...
2006 - Oleksiy Pecherov and Vladimir Veremeenko - Both have yet to play for the team...hell I don't know if either of them has even been in the country yet.
2005 - Andray Blatche - He was a prep schooler taken in the second round, so he is undeveloped and still has time to grow. Although he has only averaged 3.7 points and 3.2 rebounds in his first 2 seasons, without really cracking the rotation.
2004 - Devin Harris and Peter John Ramos - Devin Harris was a good pick, but he was essentially picked by Dallas in order for the trade for Antawn Jamison to go through. PJR scored a total of 11 points with the Wizards.
2003 - Jarvis Hayes and Steve Blake - Hayes has been a disappointment for a # 10 pick. He has averaged 8.9 points and 3.4 rebounds for his career, and simply has not gotten better from year to year. He is what he is, and its nothing special. Blake was a good second rounde choice. He is a good backup/part time starter at PG. His numbers aren't huge, but he was 7th in the NBA last year in assist to TO ratio. That certainly isn't a bad thing to have on your bench, but the Wizards didn't think Blake was worth keeping.
2002 - Jared Jeffries, Juan Dixon, Rod Grizzard, and Juan Navarro - Jared Jeffries looks like he will never average double figures in the NBA, and his rebounding isn't great for a big guy. He truly has been a disappointment for a lottery pick. Juan Dixon has better scoring numbers than more highly touted picks Hayes, Jeffries, and Brown. Atleast with Dixon you knew you were getting a guy who would bust his ass on the floor. He is a decent bench guy, but the Wizards and him went their separate ways. Grizzard was waived before playing in an NBA game, and has yet to do so. Navarro seems to be a great player, but apparently he has no wish to come to the US.
2001 - Kwame Brown and Bobby Simmons - Everybody knows about Kwame. His potential right now seems to be a 10 and 8 type of guy over the course of a season. His pick wouldn't be bad if he was chosen late in the 1st or in the 2nd, but for a number one overall guy he has been a huge disappointment. The 2-4 picks in that draft were Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, and Eddy Curry, who have all been better players so far then Kwame. Bobby Simmons actually averagd over 16 points one year for the Clippers, but he never averaged 4 ppg in his first two years for the Wizards. Not a bad 2nd round choice, but didn't show his talent in Washington.
That recent history has been abysmal. Only Jarvis Hayes started for the Wizards this past year, and he couldn't keep that status for most of the year. None of their early picks have been great, and their later picks have had a few misses just like everybody else. Only two of their draftees played for the Wizards this year, Hayes and Blatche, and their futures aren't exactly going to be stellar with Washington. While the Wizards have created a good team through free agency and trades, they certainly have not taken advantage of the draft. While I hope for the best for Nick Young and Dominic McGuire, something is telling me that these two guys will be like most of the rest. They will toil along with the Wizards for several years without truly making a mark.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
2 Over the Yanks
Well I have plans to see the Yankees and O's tommorow for my first O's game of the year. Should I bring a broom?
Its been great to see the O's beat NY the last 2 days. It helps boost the Orioles a little bit closer to respectability, while moving the Yankees a bit further away from the playoffs. Bedard was great today in beating Clemens, and Guthrie was good Tuesday despite not having his best stuff. Hopefully Daniel Cabrera brings what he had against the D-Backs last weekend to tommorow's game. Before that game it had been more than a month since his last good start.
On today's game...it was nice to see Aubrey Huff hit a 3 run homerun. He is having a decent year average wise, but I was expecting better power. He is on track for 11 homeruns, which certainly isn't what the Orioles need from their 1B/DH. At least he is showing more power than Jay Gibbons. What a mess there. Huff hit 21 homeruns last season with both TB and Houston. I was expecting along those lines this year. His OBP is also lower for the O's this year than what it has recently been. I've heard all year long that he is a second half player, so I hope he really turns it on after the All Star break.
Its been great to see the O's beat NY the last 2 days. It helps boost the Orioles a little bit closer to respectability, while moving the Yankees a bit further away from the playoffs. Bedard was great today in beating Clemens, and Guthrie was good Tuesday despite not having his best stuff. Hopefully Daniel Cabrera brings what he had against the D-Backs last weekend to tommorow's game. Before that game it had been more than a month since his last good start.
On today's game...it was nice to see Aubrey Huff hit a 3 run homerun. He is having a decent year average wise, but I was expecting better power. He is on track for 11 homeruns, which certainly isn't what the Orioles need from their 1B/DH. At least he is showing more power than Jay Gibbons. What a mess there. Huff hit 21 homeruns last season with both TB and Houston. I was expecting along those lines this year. His OBP is also lower for the O's this year than what it has recently been. I've heard all year long that he is a second half player, so I hope he really turns it on after the All Star break.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Tejada to DL and Cabrera Shines
So Miguel Tejada won't break Cal Ripken's consecutive games played streak. Well...not unless he comes back and plays until he is in his 50's. I don't think his range at SS will be that great by then. I'm somewhat glad that the streak is over, so that the O's don't feel as obligated to play him every day as they have felt. A little rest is a good idea for a player who is starting to age. This trip to the DL will give Freddy Bynum more of a chance to prove what he is capable of, whie Chris Gomez will continue to do his great job with everything that is thrown at him.
Tejada's roster space was taken by Jon Knott. The guy was only hitting .210 in Norfolk, but he has been hot lately, getting a hit in each of his last 9 games. His power is probably as good as anybody the O's have, so I would like to see him given a shot. With Corey Patterson and Jay Gibbons providing minimal offensive help, I would love to see somebody who atleast has a shot at knocking a ball out of the park.
And Daniel Cabrera has done it again. After giving up earned run totals of 5,7,4,3,4, and 5 over his last six starts, he goes on to no hit a good team for 5 innings and got the win while giving up just 1 run. I don't think he will ever be a great pitcher. However, I feel he will always be a good pitcher who will give you either amazing performances or terrifying ones at any time. He truly is a roller coaster of a player, and I'm pumped that he helped the Orioles build a winning streak after 9 games of losing this month.
Tejada's roster space was taken by Jon Knott. The guy was only hitting .210 in Norfolk, but he has been hot lately, getting a hit in each of his last 9 games. His power is probably as good as anybody the O's have, so I would like to see him given a shot. With Corey Patterson and Jay Gibbons providing minimal offensive help, I would love to see somebody who atleast has a shot at knocking a ball out of the park.
And Daniel Cabrera has done it again. After giving up earned run totals of 5,7,4,3,4, and 5 over his last six starts, he goes on to no hit a good team for 5 innings and got the win while giving up just 1 run. I don't think he will ever be a great pitcher. However, I feel he will always be a good pitcher who will give you either amazing performances or terrifying ones at any time. He truly is a roller coaster of a player, and I'm pumped that he helped the Orioles build a winning streak after 9 games of losing this month.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Orioles Shake Things Up
Well the Orioles certainly made some news today, despite not winning a game in over a week. First thing is Sam Perlozzo was fired. I think people saw this coming. The O's are playing awful, and the issues with Gibbons, Millar, and Perlozzo have been in the paper for a while. Perlozzo certainly seems like a good guy, and while he hasn't really been given a great team to work with, I don't see a problem with the firing right now. He doesn't seem like the guy who will lead them back to glory.
The O's managerial situation has been awful over the last decade. Davey Johnson did a great job in 96-97, but that was when the team was actually paying for the services of superstars while they were in their prime. Since then Ray Miller, Mike Hargrove, Lee Mazzilli, and Sam Perlozzo have all come and gone. Hargrove somehow managed 4 losing years at the helm, but the others didn't receive more than 2 years to get the job done. The Orioles just haven't given most guys enough of a chance to get the job done. Davey Johnson never should have been run out of town. Miller wasn't given enough time. Mazzilli wasn't given enough time or enough control. Perlozzo wasn't given much time.
The rumor now is that Joe Girardi is the frontrunner for the job. That would be great news for the O's to take a guy who has been successful as a manager before at the Major League level. However, I hope they don't give him a raw deal like Mazzilli. Lee wasn't allowed to hire his own assistants, and had to change the environment around him with those who were carried over from other losing regimes. If Girardi comes in it would be wise to give him total control over personnel. If he wants his own coaches...let him have it. The O's coaches that are around now aren't coming from a winning tradition anymore. They have all been part of a losing organization for a decade, and I wouldn't mind seeing them go at all. Supposedly Girardi meets with O's management tommorow. O's fans need to pray they don't let this opportunity pass them by.
The other news today is that Andy McPhail, formerly of the Cubs, will be the new COO. Seems like an important job to fill. Good work O's. Hopefully hiring an outsider to run things will bring some new ideas and some positive change into the organization.
The O's managerial situation has been awful over the last decade. Davey Johnson did a great job in 96-97, but that was when the team was actually paying for the services of superstars while they were in their prime. Since then Ray Miller, Mike Hargrove, Lee Mazzilli, and Sam Perlozzo have all come and gone. Hargrove somehow managed 4 losing years at the helm, but the others didn't receive more than 2 years to get the job done. The Orioles just haven't given most guys enough of a chance to get the job done. Davey Johnson never should have been run out of town. Miller wasn't given enough time. Mazzilli wasn't given enough time or enough control. Perlozzo wasn't given much time.
The rumor now is that Joe Girardi is the frontrunner for the job. That would be great news for the O's to take a guy who has been successful as a manager before at the Major League level. However, I hope they don't give him a raw deal like Mazzilli. Lee wasn't allowed to hire his own assistants, and had to change the environment around him with those who were carried over from other losing regimes. If Girardi comes in it would be wise to give him total control over personnel. If he wants his own coaches...let him have it. The O's coaches that are around now aren't coming from a winning tradition anymore. They have all been part of a losing organization for a decade, and I wouldn't mind seeing them go at all. Supposedly Girardi meets with O's management tommorow. O's fans need to pray they don't let this opportunity pass them by.
The other news today is that Andy McPhail, formerly of the Cubs, will be the new COO. Seems like an important job to fill. Good work O's. Hopefully hiring an outsider to run things will bring some new ideas and some positive change into the organization.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
8 in a Row
8 losses in a row for the Orioles. Things just really aren't good right now. I like how the O's management made a move to shake things up by releasing Todd Williams and moving Danys Baez to the DL. Hopefully Corey Doyne and James Hoey are able to step up and prove they can be major league caliber pitchers.
I feel the O's also need to shake up their lineup and give some chances to some guys in the minors right now. The runs scored over the losing streak have been 4,4,3,1,6,4,1,2. That comes out to 3.13 runs per game over that stretch. The O's obviously don't deserve to win games over that time period.
The problem driving in runs really is troubling. Miguel Tejada is hitting well, but is still struggling for power. After a decent power surge a couple of weeks ago, he has gone the last week with just one extra base hit, and still has just 17 on the year. Nick Markakis is hitting for power and driving in runs, but isn't reaching base like I expected him too. Those two offensive leaders for the O's could be doing better, but are still helping this team.
The greatest problem is coming from 2 of your key contributors. Jay Gibbons and Corey Patterson have OBP's of .257 and .258. When one of those guys should be a key RBI guy and the other is a critical baserunner for your team, that doesn't bode well for your team's success. I really feel that there are players in the minors who should be given the chance to play with these guys struggling so badly. Both have done decently for the Orioles in the past, but neither should get a free ride for bad play.
One solid move I've seen lately is to give Freddy Bynum more at bats. He is no superstar, but has done better than Patterson and Gibbons in his small number of at bats. He has earned the right to play more with those 2 players struggling so badly. Just because he started the season as your 25th guy on the bench doesn't mean he has to stay there all year.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=418
I'm looking at Bowie for guys who could help the O's, because the O's roster at Norfolk looks abyssmal. Although the Tides' Tike Redman would probably be a better option in the OF right now for the O's.
Since Nolan Reimold is on the DL, he isn't an option to be called up. He is an impressive player who was hitting .329 in Bowie to start the year. He will likely be a starting outfielder for the O's next season. However, Jeff Fiorentino and Val Majewski are decent options who could produce better than Gibbons or Patterson. They are both hitting in the .270's with decent power numbers. At this point I would rather have a couple of young guys who are eager to prove themselves getting at bats than a couple of sulking young veterans.
I feel the O's also need to shake up their lineup and give some chances to some guys in the minors right now. The runs scored over the losing streak have been 4,4,3,1,6,4,1,2. That comes out to 3.13 runs per game over that stretch. The O's obviously don't deserve to win games over that time period.
The problem driving in runs really is troubling. Miguel Tejada is hitting well, but is still struggling for power. After a decent power surge a couple of weeks ago, he has gone the last week with just one extra base hit, and still has just 17 on the year. Nick Markakis is hitting for power and driving in runs, but isn't reaching base like I expected him too. Those two offensive leaders for the O's could be doing better, but are still helping this team.
The greatest problem is coming from 2 of your key contributors. Jay Gibbons and Corey Patterson have OBP's of .257 and .258. When one of those guys should be a key RBI guy and the other is a critical baserunner for your team, that doesn't bode well for your team's success. I really feel that there are players in the minors who should be given the chance to play with these guys struggling so badly. Both have done decently for the Orioles in the past, but neither should get a free ride for bad play.
One solid move I've seen lately is to give Freddy Bynum more at bats. He is no superstar, but has done better than Patterson and Gibbons in his small number of at bats. He has earned the right to play more with those 2 players struggling so badly. Just because he started the season as your 25th guy on the bench doesn't mean he has to stay there all year.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=418
I'm looking at Bowie for guys who could help the O's, because the O's roster at Norfolk looks abyssmal. Although the Tides' Tike Redman would probably be a better option in the OF right now for the O's.
Since Nolan Reimold is on the DL, he isn't an option to be called up. He is an impressive player who was hitting .329 in Bowie to start the year. He will likely be a starting outfielder for the O's next season. However, Jeff Fiorentino and Val Majewski are decent options who could produce better than Gibbons or Patterson. They are both hitting in the .270's with decent power numbers. At this point I would rather have a couple of young guys who are eager to prove themselves getting at bats than a couple of sulking young veterans.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Chris Ray = Closer?
Chris Ray has had a stellar start to his career with the Baltimore Orioles. After doing brilliantly as BJ Ryan's set up guy for one year, he was given the closer's role last season and appeared to earn that spot with his performance. So far this season Ray has looked like anything but a closer.
The idea of a closer isn't just of a great reliever, but also of a guy who has some fire when he is on the mound. He is the type of guy who might only get one inning of work, but he will give you everything he has in that one inning and walk off knowing he helped win that game. Ray doesn't seem like that guy right now. Its obvious that he is trying, but his demeanor makes it appear that he isn't comfortable that he is that guy right now.
Ray's peripheral stats are fairly decent right now. His WHIP of 1.24 isn't bad. Not as nice as his 1.09 last season, but still respectable. His K/BB ratio is better this year than last, 2.33 to 1.88. He also hasn't give up a lot of homeruns, 3 in over 30 innings. Despite these decent stats, his ERA is almost 2 whole points higher than it was last year, and he already has 5 losses.
So if most of his stats reflect that he is pitching well, why has he struggled in critical games? What causes him to come up short when it seems the O's need him most.
Looking at the Nationals' closer Chad Cordero seems like a good impression to me. He and Ray are the same age, although Cordero has had a longer length of experience as a closer. They both play for teams that are near the bottom of the standings and don't give them as many save opportunities as other closers. Cordero's WHIP this season is 1.48, K/BB is 1.66, and he has given up 4 homeruns in the same amount of innings as Ray. By those stats Ray is having the better season. However, Cordero has just one loss and an ERA of 2.90.
Cordero obviously is being more productive this season than Ray. However, his numbers don't reflect that he is necessarily superior to Ray. What separates the two players is the mindset. Cordero has the confidence of a closer, while I am not seeing that confidence from Ray this season. At this point Chris Ray is the closer by default. The O's don't have anybody in their pen to come in and take his spot away. Maybe thats a problem. If Danys Baez was pitching well, maybe it would push Chris Ray a bit. Hopefully Ray is able to turn things around this season and prove he is the O's guy at the end of games, but his confidence, and my confidence in him, certainly isn't there right now.
The idea of a closer isn't just of a great reliever, but also of a guy who has some fire when he is on the mound. He is the type of guy who might only get one inning of work, but he will give you everything he has in that one inning and walk off knowing he helped win that game. Ray doesn't seem like that guy right now. Its obvious that he is trying, but his demeanor makes it appear that he isn't comfortable that he is that guy right now.
Ray's peripheral stats are fairly decent right now. His WHIP of 1.24 isn't bad. Not as nice as his 1.09 last season, but still respectable. His K/BB ratio is better this year than last, 2.33 to 1.88. He also hasn't give up a lot of homeruns, 3 in over 30 innings. Despite these decent stats, his ERA is almost 2 whole points higher than it was last year, and he already has 5 losses.
So if most of his stats reflect that he is pitching well, why has he struggled in critical games? What causes him to come up short when it seems the O's need him most.
Looking at the Nationals' closer Chad Cordero seems like a good impression to me. He and Ray are the same age, although Cordero has had a longer length of experience as a closer. They both play for teams that are near the bottom of the standings and don't give them as many save opportunities as other closers. Cordero's WHIP this season is 1.48, K/BB is 1.66, and he has given up 4 homeruns in the same amount of innings as Ray. By those stats Ray is having the better season. However, Cordero has just one loss and an ERA of 2.90.
Cordero obviously is being more productive this season than Ray. However, his numbers don't reflect that he is necessarily superior to Ray. What separates the two players is the mindset. Cordero has the confidence of a closer, while I am not seeing that confidence from Ray this season. At this point Chris Ray is the closer by default. The O's don't have anybody in their pen to come in and take his spot away. Maybe thats a problem. If Danys Baez was pitching well, maybe it would push Chris Ray a bit. Hopefully Ray is able to turn things around this season and prove he is the O's guy at the end of games, but his confidence, and my confidence in him, certainly isn't there right now.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Daniel Cabrera
Daniel Cabrera had a rough outing last night in the O's loss to the Nationals. 7 earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched will certainly hurt his numbers. Cabrera is 26 and still a young pitcher, however, this is his 4th year in the Orioles rotation. I wanted to take a look at his numbers to see if there are any noticeable signs of improvement.
Currently Cabrera has a 36-38 career record. Granted some of those losses come from the O's being a below average team, but he has earned his fair share of those losses as well. So far in his career he has been a .500 pitcher. His best year in terms of W/L was his rookie year in 2004 when he went 12-8. Since then he has been 10-13, 9-10, and currently 5-7. The trend seems to be that he is a slightly below .500 pitcher.
The most innings he has pitched in a year has been 161.3 in 2005. He is on track to surpass that this year if everything continues like it has. His innings per start has increased from 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, to 6.3 in 2007. Its a good sign to see that he is able to go further in games. However, that stat means nothing if it doesn't translate into wins.
In Cabrera's rookie year he had more walks than strikeouts. That certainly isn't a good sign for a pitcher. However, he has improved over the years. His K to BB ratio has been 1.8, 1.5, and 1.6 the last 3 years. Those are solid numbers, but again there are a lot of walks involved.
Cabrera's ERA has never been great. He has always been described as having great stuff, but being unable to control it. His best era was 4.52 in 2005. That followed his debut of 5.00, and in 2006 he had a 4.74. This season he currently has a 5.16 ERA.
His WHIPs have been 1.585, 1.432, 1.581, and 1.472. His WHIP appears to reflect his ERA except for this season. I think the difference this year has been the 11 home runs he has given up. In his first 3 seasons Cabrera allowed 14, 14, and 11 homeruns. Having 11 before the All Star break certainly explains why his era has jumped to higher than it has been in his career.
Overall I am slightly disappointed in Cabrera's progress. He has made improvements since his rookie year, but they have yet to translate into on field success. He still leads the AL in walks like he did in 2006. He is also in the top 10 for wild pitches and hit batsmen. He seems to always have starts that open your eyes and wow you. However, we also are used to nights like last night when he gets in a rut that he can't seem to buy his way out of.
I'm not about to give up on a guy who is as talented as Cabrera is at his age. O's fans might have to live through his rough starts, but the possibility of him pitching a great game is always there. If his overall statistics don't improve, and the O's don't see more wins, than they need to consider upgrading their rotation. However, I know that is very unlikely to happen with Angelos and crew running the business. As long as additions to the rotation include guys like Benson, Trachsel, and Wright, then Cabrera will have a place in Baltimore. I would rather see Daniel truly find control of his ability, and cement himself as an Orioles starter by his results, rather than the O's reluctance to acquire better talent.
Currently Cabrera has a 36-38 career record. Granted some of those losses come from the O's being a below average team, but he has earned his fair share of those losses as well. So far in his career he has been a .500 pitcher. His best year in terms of W/L was his rookie year in 2004 when he went 12-8. Since then he has been 10-13, 9-10, and currently 5-7. The trend seems to be that he is a slightly below .500 pitcher.
The most innings he has pitched in a year has been 161.3 in 2005. He is on track to surpass that this year if everything continues like it has. His innings per start has increased from 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, to 6.3 in 2007. Its a good sign to see that he is able to go further in games. However, that stat means nothing if it doesn't translate into wins.
In Cabrera's rookie year he had more walks than strikeouts. That certainly isn't a good sign for a pitcher. However, he has improved over the years. His K to BB ratio has been 1.8, 1.5, and 1.6 the last 3 years. Those are solid numbers, but again there are a lot of walks involved.
Cabrera's ERA has never been great. He has always been described as having great stuff, but being unable to control it. His best era was 4.52 in 2005. That followed his debut of 5.00, and in 2006 he had a 4.74. This season he currently has a 5.16 ERA.
His WHIPs have been 1.585, 1.432, 1.581, and 1.472. His WHIP appears to reflect his ERA except for this season. I think the difference this year has been the 11 home runs he has given up. In his first 3 seasons Cabrera allowed 14, 14, and 11 homeruns. Having 11 before the All Star break certainly explains why his era has jumped to higher than it has been in his career.
Overall I am slightly disappointed in Cabrera's progress. He has made improvements since his rookie year, but they have yet to translate into on field success. He still leads the AL in walks like he did in 2006. He is also in the top 10 for wild pitches and hit batsmen. He seems to always have starts that open your eyes and wow you. However, we also are used to nights like last night when he gets in a rut that he can't seem to buy his way out of.
I'm not about to give up on a guy who is as talented as Cabrera is at his age. O's fans might have to live through his rough starts, but the possibility of him pitching a great game is always there. If his overall statistics don't improve, and the O's don't see more wins, than they need to consider upgrading their rotation. However, I know that is very unlikely to happen with Angelos and crew running the business. As long as additions to the rotation include guys like Benson, Trachsel, and Wright, then Cabrera will have a place in Baltimore. I would rather see Daniel truly find control of his ability, and cement himself as an Orioles starter by his results, rather than the O's reluctance to acquire better talent.
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